What if Texas seceded? GOP wouldn’t allow it anytime soon

By Leroy Cleveland - May 10, 2021

Some Texas state lawmakers have been considering a Brexit-style departure from the United States due to the presumed impending doom and loss of individual liberties that are supposedly upon us thanks to the Biden Administration.

But is that really the case? Sans a woman’s right to choose, something many of those secessionists don’t support, no one is losing any liberties.

So, what gives?

“Just like so much of Trumpian America, secession in places like Texas is rooted in a combination of nativism, xenophobia, and white racial grievance,” said NBC columnist Casey Michel.

“Just like the Confederates before them, this modern secessionist ethos is rooted at least in large part in maintaining white supremacy and authoritarian governance, regardless of the costs.”

What if Texas seceded? While it may sound nice on the surface to a few Texas conservatives, it won’t happen anytime soon for several reasons.

For purposes of simplicity, we’ll explore why the Republican Party, alone, would serve as the Texit’s movement’s biggest obstacle.

For starters and at this moment, Texas Republican lawmakers account for a whopping 22 (or 10.3 percent) of the 212 GOP seats in the U.S. House. In addition, the GOP probably has a lock on of the state’s Senate seats for the part of the next decade.



If Texas became a separate nation, the U.S. House of Representatives would lose 38, including 22 to 24 being Republican-controlled and in Texas. The net 14 to15 seat loss for Republicans would vastly reduce their chances of controlling the chamber going forward.

Second, in a hypothetical Texit scenario, both of the state’s Republican Senate seats would be sacrificed as well. Today, the chamber is split 50-50. Without Texas, left leaners would enjoy a 50-48 advantage and their odds of maintaining future control of Congress’s upper chamber would increase.

And third, any chances for the U.S. to elect a Republican president again would be vastly reduced without Texas’ 38 electoral votes, so don’t expect GOP powerbrokers outside of the state to support the Texit initiative.

George W. Bush certainly couldn’t have won the presidency in 2000 and 2004 without Texas while GOP candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney wouldn’t have been competitive in 2008 and 2012 without carrying The Lonestar State.

… That’s how dependent Republicans are on Texas.

Without Texas, the U.S. wouldn’t immediately turn into Norway or Sweden but hardcore liberals outside the state would certainly be giddy about the political ramifications of a post-Texit scenario.

There are additional reasons Texit won’t secede but the movement won’t get far enough to delve into them anytime soon on the grounds stated above.

What if Texas seceded? It won’t happen soon because Republicans outside the state would fight it tooth and nail.