What if Texas seceded? GOP won’t allow it anytime soon

By Lee Cleveland, Polls and Trends - September 25, 2021

Some Texas state lawmakers are considering a Brexit-style departure from the United States due to the presumed impending doom and loss of individual liberties that awaits under the new Biden Administration.

In fact, a secession bill will likely be voted on by the Texas legislature this year.

“Just like so much of Trumpian America, secession in places like Texas is rooted in a combination of nativism, xenophobia, and white racial grievance,” said NBC columnist Casey Michel.

“Just like the Confederates before them, this modern secessionist ethos is rooted at least in large part in maintaining white supremacy and authoritarian governance, regardless of the costs.”

What if Texas seceded? While it may sound nice on the surface to a few Texas conservatives, it won’t happen anytime soon for several reasons.

For purposes of simplicity, we’ll explore why the Republican Party, alone, would serve as Texit’s biggest obstacle.

The Republican Party, already diminishing in relevance, is far too dependent on Texas in U.S. national politics.

At this moment, Texas Republican lawmakers account for a whopping 22 (or 10.3 percent) of the 212 GOP seats in the U.S. House. If Texas became a separate nation, the U.S. House of Representatives, currently controlled by the Democrats, would lose an additional 19 to 25 Republican seats, vastly reducing the GOP’s future chances of controlling the chamber.

Democrats would lose 12 to 14 seats, far fewer than their GOP foes.

Second, two Republican Senate seats would be sacrificed as well. Today, the Senate is split 50-50. Without Texas, left leaners would enjoy a 50-48 advantage and their odds of maintaining future control of Congress’s upper chamber would grow.

And third, any chances for the U.S. to elect a Republican president again would be vastly reduced. Texas, with its large electoral vote sum of 40, is what keeps Republican candidates relevant contenders.

George W. Bush certainly couldn’t have won the presidency in 2000 and 2004 without Texas while GOP candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney wouldn’t have been competitive in 2008 and 2012 without carrying The Lonestar State.

In fact, a Hillary Clinton upset in Texas in 2016 would have won her the election 270-268.

… That’s how dependent Republicans are on Texas.

Without Texas, the U.S. wouldn’t immediately turn into Norway or Sweden but hardcore liberals outside the state would certainly be giddy about the political ramifications for a post-Texit scenario.

There are additional reasons Texit won’t secede but the movement won’t get far enough to delve into them anytime soon on the grounds stated above.

What if Texas seceded? It won’t happen soon because Republicans outside the state would fight it tooth and nail.

Tags: texas, texit