Trumper states 2020: Yes, red states represented 7 of the 8 most dangerous in U.S.

By Lee Cleveland, Polls and Trends - September 30, 2021

“It’s embarrassing to us as a nation,” said then-President Trump in October 2019. “All over the world, they’re talking about Chicago. Afghanistan is a safe place by comparison.”

And nine months later, Trump, while campaigning for re-election, told reporters, “You hear about certain places like Chicago and you hear about what’s going on in Detroit and other — other cities, all Democrat run.


“Every one of them is Democrat run. Twenty out of 20. The 20 worst, the 20 most dangerous are Democrat run.”

And in the weeks leading up to the election Trump, trailing mightily in the polls, desperately tweeted the following:

“California is going to hell. Vote Trump!”
“New York has gone to hell. Vote Trump!”
“Illinois has no place to go. Sad, isn’t it? Vote Trump!”

Throughout his presidency, Trump blasted the leaders of blue states, insisting crime rates were the direct result of Democratic policies. And to his credit – and without any data – he convinced tens of millions of Americans that the conservative-led states were better managed and much safer than their left-leaning counterparts.

What Trump failed to mention is that despite the typical elevated crime rates in America’s most populated cities, blue states, such as California, Illinois, and New York, were still statistically safer than many of the conservative-led red states Trump won in 2020.

In fact, according to the most recent data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 7 of the 8 most dangerous states last year preferred Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

So, what determines a state’s level of danger?

The American government categorizes crime in two ways – violent crime and property crime. Of course, the key metric, as it relates to an individual’s physical security, is violent crime and it’s the statistic we’ll use to assess states’ safety levels.

The four criminal behaviors that fall under violent crime are:

  • Aggravated assault
  • Robbery
  • Homicide, whether intentional or accidental
  • Rape

10 Most Dangerous States in the U.S. (2020)

Definition: Number of murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults per 100,000 population

Data Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation via America’s Health Rankings

1 ALASKA
Violent crimes per capita:
885.00

2. NEW MEXICO
Violent crimes per capita: 832.00

3. TENNESSEE
Violent crimes per capita: 595

4. ARKANSAS
Violent crimes per capita: 585

5. LOUISIANA
Violent crimes per capita: 549

6. SOUTH CAROLINA
Violent crimes per capita: 511

7. ALABAMA
Violent crimes per capita: 511

8. MISSOURI
Violent crimes per capita: 495

9. NEVADA
Violent crimes per capita: 494

10. ARIZONA
Violent crimes per capita: 455

The rest of the ratings can be found on America’s Health Rankings which uses violent crime data from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Seven of the 8 most dangerous states last year supported Trump in 2020 with New Mexico as the only outlier.

Simply put, the most dangerous red states are largely more dangerous, per capita, than the most dangerous blue states.

Should GOP state leaders take a page out of the Democrats’ playbook in an effort to reduce violent crime in their commonwealths?

As for the safest states in 2020, the top 6 are blue as are 7 of the top 10.

10 Safest States in the U.S. (2020)

Definition: Number of murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults per 100,000 population

Data Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation via America’s Health Rankings

  1. MAINE
    Violent crimes per capita: 115

  2. NEW HAMPSHIRE
    Violent crimes per capita: 153

  3. CONNECTICUT
    Violent crimes per capita: 184

  4. VERMONT
    Violent crimes per capita: 202

  5. NEW JERSEY
    Violent crimes per capita: 207

  6. VIRGINIA
    Violent crimes per capita: 208

  7. KENTUCKY
    Violent crimes per capita: 217

  8. WYOMING
    Violent crimes per capita: 217

  9. RHODE ISLAND
    Violent crimes per capita: 221

  10. IDAHO
    Violent crimes per capita: 224

The rest of the ratings can be found on America’s Health Rankings which uses violent crime data from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The results are conclusive.

Statistically, and in aggregate, blue states, on a per capita basis, are safer than red states.

Tags: crime, Donald Trump, stats, U.S states