Former President Donald Trump will undoubtedly play a dominant role in the 2022 midterm races and, per a recent survey conducted by Democratic polling firm Greenberg Research, Republican voters aligned with him are much more immersed in next year’s elections than Democrats.
And the difference in interest is even more significant in battleground states, including Florida.
The Greenberg poll, in attempting to measure voter intensity levels in swing Congressional Districts that will likely decide which party controls Congress after 2022, found 68% of Republican voters reported the highest level of interest in the midterms, compared to 57% of Democrats.
Not a good sign for Blue.
“We were also surprised by how much Donald Trump’s loyalist party is totally consolidated at this early point in its 2022 voting and how engaged it is,” Greenberg wrote. “Yes, they have pulled back from historic presidential year levels: the percent scoring 10, the highest level of interest in the election, has fallen from 84 to 68%. But Democrats’ engagement fell from 85% to 57%.”
“Republicans are following their political theater much more closely than are Democrats — producing an 11-point gap.“
Incidentally, Trump loyalists comprise about 58% of Republicans nationwide but 67% of Republicans in battleground states and House districts.
Not a good sign for Blue.
So why are Republicans so energized?
For starters, they realize history is on their side. Democrats are narrowly in control of both Houses of Congress, but Republicans are licking their chops for next year’s races because, over the last 30 years, the party out of presidential power has usually made substantial gains in the midterm election cycle during a president’s first term.
Secondly, Greenburg, the survey’s manager, believes Trump’s incessant lying about the ‘stolen’ election and the ouster of GOP Conference Chair Liz Cheney has kept political engagement and enthusiasm among Trumpers high.
Per the Greenburg Research poll, 97 percent of Trump loyalists will vote for Republican candidates in 2022 and a whopping 76 percent rated their interest in voting a 10 out of 10.
Meanwhile, only 37% of Republican moderates are excited about the 2022 elections; 70 percent will vote for Republican candidates while 13 percent will opt for Democratic candidates.
And of popular Democratic constituencies, just 56%, 55%, and 53% of Blacks, unmarried women and, voters of color as a whole, respectively, expressed a level 10 interest in the 2022 midterms.
What issues are driving Trumpers?
Not surprisingly, the poll found race was at the center of conservatives’ intensity.
“This survey shows what are the true drivers of GOP identity — the deep hostility to Black Lives Matter, undocumented immigrants, and ANTIFA,” Greenberg wrote.
“And imagine their reaction to the flood of unaccompanied children at the border, the guilty verdict in Minneapolis, and Black Lives Matter protests after each police shooting of unarmed Blacks.”
Yet “alarmingly, Democrats are barely following politics.”
At this moment, voter turnout on the Democratic end is looking bleak.
“Democrats and Joe Biden need to show that they are helping people in historic ways, and it will all be put at risk if Trump’s Republican Party retakes the Congress and reverses the gains,” Greenburg stated.
“With fairness, we are many chapters away from being able to tell that story and make that contrast. Much of that gain is delivering materially to offer an economic and class contrast with the Republicans.”
Even as a private citizen, Trump is the Republicans’ biggest weapon and he will inspire his base to turn out to vote. However, as his party’s greatest liability, will Trump encourage high levels of Democratic voter enthusiasm?
For Democrats to maintain Congress, anti-Trumpers must be just as energized to vote against Trump’s disciples in 2022 as they were against him in 2020.
Since leaving office in January, Trump, for the first time since 2016, hasn’t dominated headlines. Perhaps the more we see of him over the next 16 months, the angrier and more spirited Democratic voters will become.2022 Election, Donald Trump, u.s. congress