Sadly, over 30 percent of Americans believe the 2020 U.S Presidential Election was rigged or riddled with widespread fraud.
Of course, for some strange reason no one is claiming fraud as it relates to the November 2020 congressional and gubernatorial elections. Given all the candidates for each race were on one ballot, it would be even more difficult for the “alleged” crooks to manipulate data on one part of the ballot and not the other.
… But that’s a topic for another article.
Following the official returns from Election 2020, then-President Donald Trump and his lawyers argued the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. Sans Nevada, all were won by Trump in 2016.
However, the biggest statistical indication Trump lost legitimately is supported by election data in the states he carried, not necessarily the ones he lost.
In simple win/loss percentage margins, Trump, in 2020, underperformed in 44 of the 51 states (including DC) versus the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.
Was there corruption in 44 states?
And in only 3 of 24 states Trump carried in both elections – Arkansas, Utah and Florida – did he expand his margin of victory from 2016 to 2020.
Hence, Joe Biden was resoundingly more popular with voters in 2020 than was Hillary Clinton in 2016, even in states Trump won comfortably in both elections.
Examples:
Alaska – Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Alaska by 14.8 percent in 2016 but carried the state by only 10.1 percent in 2020. (Advantage Biden: +4.7)
Texas – The former president enjoyed a 9 percent margin of victory in 2016 but won here by only 5.6 percent last year. (Advantage Biden: +3.4)
In Arizona and Georgia, 2 of the 5 states Biden flipped in 2020, Democrats gained 3.9 and 5.4 percentage points, respectively, from the previous election. However, Trump’s margins of victory in Kansas and Nebraska were a whopping 5.9 percentage points lower versus the previous election.
From 2016 to 2020, we saw greater voting shifts, in terms of percentage margins, in Kansas and Nebraska than in any of the states Biden flipped, including Arizona and Georgia.
Was there voter fraud in Kansas and Nebraska too?
Based on the margin softening Trump experienced across the country, it’s no wonder he, in 2020, lost Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In 2016, he won each of those states by less than a percentage point.
From 2016 to 2020, we saw a massive decrease in third party candidate support and Biden was the huge beneficiary. As a result, he flipped 5 states, surpassed Hillary’s margin of victory in 20 states and narrowed Trump’s margin of victory in 19.
| 15 Key Battlegrounds | US Presidential Election – Biden’s net margin increase from 2016-20 |
| AZ | 3.9% |
| FL | -2.2% |
| GA | 5.4% |
| IA | 1.2% |
| ME2 | 2.8% |
| MI | 3.0% |
| MN | 5.6% |
| NE2 | 8.8% |
| NV | 0.0% |
| NH | 7.0% |
| NC | 2.3% |
| OH | 0.1% |
| PA | 1.9% |
| TX | 3.4% |
| WI | 1.4% |
| Non-Battlegrounds | US Presidential Election – Biden’s net margin increase from 2016-20 |
| Alabama | 2.3% |
| Alaska | 4.7% |
| Arkansas | -0.7% |
| California | -0.9% |
| Colorado | 8.6% |
| Connecticut | 6.4% |
| Delaware | 7.6% |
| District of Columbia | 0.0% |
| Hawaii | -2.7% |
| Idaho | 1.0% |
| Illinois | -0.1% |
| Indiana | 3.1% |
| Kansas | 5.9% |
| Kentucky | 3.9% |
| Louisiana | 1.0% |
| Maine | 6.1% |
| Maine 1st District | 8.3% |
| Maryland | 6.8% |
| Massachusetts | 6.3% |
| Mississippi | 1.3% |
| Missouri | 3.2% |
| Montana | 4.1% |
| Nebraska | 5.9% |
| Nebraska 1st District | 5.7% |
| Nebraska 3rd District | 1.0% |
| New Jersey | 1.8% |
| New Mexico | 2.6% |
| New York | 0.6% |
| North Dakota | 2.4% |
| Oklahoma | 3.3% |
| Oregon | 5.1% |
| Rhode Island | 5.3% |
| South Carolina | 2.6% |
| South Dakota | 3.6% |
| Tennessee | 2.8% |
| Utah | -2.4% |
| Vermont | 9.0% |
| Virginia | 4.8% |
| Washington | 3.5% |
| West Virginia | 3.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.9% |
Trump’s loss margin in Nevada in 2020 was comparable to the 2016 result and he expanded his margins of victory in Florida, Utah and Arkansas. And, he narrowed the gap a bit in his losses in Illinois, California and Hawaii. But, in all of the other 44 states Trump’s percentage margins softened in 2020 versus 2016.
2020 Election vs 2016 Election:
Biden, in most Republican strongholds alone, ran significantly stronger than Hillary in 2016.
Hence, and from a purely statistical standpoint, it should come as no surprise he also ran stronger (than Hillary) in most of the swing states.
In fact, and, again, from a statistical standpoint, Trump should consider himself fortunate to have held on to North Carolina given the level of margin softening (versus 2016) he experienced in Texas, Alaska, Kansas and Nebraska in 2020,
Download Cook Report Spreadsheet for Excel
Download Cook Report Spreadsheet for CSV
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The video below isn’t directly related to the article but contains relevant information about the topic.
How Biden’s lead over Trump differs from Clinton’s in 2016
Oct 13, 2020
CNN
CNN’s Harry Enten gives an in-depth comparison of what the polls show us about the 2020 presidential race between Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, compared to Trump’s 2016 race against Hillary Clinton.
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