Lauren Boebert 2022: Seat red hot for the taking?

By Lee Cleveland, Polls and Trends - September 25, 2021

Although recent history tells us Democrats should be concerned about getting hammered in the 2022 midterm elections, it might be Republicans who’ll go down for the count.

Enter Lauren Boebert.

Newly elected in 2020, Rep. Boebert (R-CO), 34, a vocal Trump/MAGA supporter, has been one of the most outspoken Republicans in Congress and has rapidly ascended to semi-mainstream status.

More often than not, House reps with mainstream identities, such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Kevin McCarthy, and Steve Scalise, are shoe-ins for reelection but that may not be the case for the gun-toting Boebert.

According to a report from Politico, the antics of Rep. Lauren Boebert’s are backfiring with her constituents.

“Among voters in Pueblo—the largest and most politically unpredictable city in Boebert’s vast district—there is a growing sense of exasperation with the freshman representative not yet six months into her tenure,” wrote Politico’s Jennifer Oldham in a recent article.

Need examples? Here’s one.

Boebert’s opposition to President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan has some in her district fuming because local leaders there believe it would create a lot of strong jobs in the region.

And to add insult to injury, it was reported Boebert refuses to comment on why she opposes Biden’s infrastructure plan. Also, given her local office is closed, there’s no one available on her staff to discuss the issue.

“One of the key parts of that [infrastructure] plan is Amtrak expansion. Ours is one of only three mills in the country that makes rail,” said Charles Perko, a local union leader, via Politico.

“If we can get just that part of the infrastructure plan alone passed, that will be business that would keep us in jobs for many years.”

Last November, Boebert won the right to represent Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District with 51.4 percent of the vote, finishing a solid 4.9 percentage points over her Democratic challenger.

So, how is she polling these days?

“In an April poll conducted and paid for by three Democratic-leaning firms, 42 percent of Coloradans interviewed in her district said they had a favorable view of the representative, while 45 percent reported a negative view. (The results were based on a sample of 528 online surveys.), reported Politico’s Oldham.

“I thought Lauren would be a great representative for small business owners because she owns a small business, and she came from a humble lifestyle.

But she has been so terribly disappointing. I am humiliated and embarrassed when she speaks on the House floor. She screams all the time, and she seems to have affiliated herself with white supremacists.”

Constituent Gus Garcia, who voted for the GOP lawmaker in 2020, via Politico

Boebert’s district, despite leaning Republican in recent years, is quite a mixed bag politically.

• 71.1% White
• 24.1% Hispanic
• 1.6% other
• 1.5% Two or more races
• 1.0% Black
• 0.7% Asian

Democrat John Salazar won three consecutive elections from 2004-2008, defeating his Republican opponent by over 20 percentage points in his second and third races. However, he’d lose his seat in 2010 to Scott Tipton, 50-46%.

Tipton would win re-election in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 by 8, 22, 14, and 8 percentage points, respectively, leading up to Boebert’s 4.9 percentage point win last year.

Races there have tightened considerably since 2014. Combine that with Boebert’s apparent sinking popularity and perceived indifference to her constituents and it’s obvious why Democrats are targeting Colorado’s 3rd District in 2022.

Per The Denver Post, Boebert had raised $700,000 by April 2 while Democratic state Sen. Kerry Donovan, her potential general election challenger in 2022, had raised more than $630,000 by the same date, according to the latter’s campaign.

Democratic state Sen. Kerry Donovan

It’s often a good sign when a relative unknown raises so much money early. Win or lose, Donovan is going to have solid momentum heading into the 2022 midterm races.

Should Boebert win, it may be a costly endeavor for Republicans who could be forced to divert funds from offensive seat-flipping initiatives in order to play defense for a seat that could – or should – have easily been a lock.

“Each person who chipped in is fed up with Lauren Boebert’s conspiracy theories, division and selfish, ideological agenda and are ready for real leadership that will deliver results to get the doors of main street businesses open, reduce the cost of health care, and keep public lands in public hands,” Donovan said in a statement to The  Denver Post.

Tags: 2022 Election, lauen boebert, midterns