Georgia is the center of American politics these days. Not only are both of their U.S. Senate seats being contested in a runoff election on January 5, the outcome will also determine which party controls the Senate.
Currently, the upper chamber of Congress consists of 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats and 2 left-leaning independents who caucus with the Democrats. It’s essentially 52-48.
Democrats need to win both races to produce a 50-50 tie. And because Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would have the power to break ties in the chamber, Democrats would have a theoretical 51-50 advantage should they flip both seats.
But, control of the Senate would give Democrats far more than a voting advantage; As the party in power, they’d be able to call the shots in the policy formulation process in both chambers of the U.S. Congress. (Democrats have a slim majority in the House of Representatives)
Our viewpoint: The GOP has a small – but clear – advantage in both races. In order to win in January, Democrats, at the very least, MUST ensure heavy turnout among its voters. And they should target Blacks who comprise 32 percent of the state’s population and vote overwhelmingly Democratic.
Democrats, as far as flipping both Senate seats, face a similar situation to the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. For the latter to make the playoffs, they must beat the Giants and hope the Washington Football Team losses to the Eagles.
All the Washington Football Team must do to make the playoffs is win. They control their destiny and aren’t dependent on other teams, but their quarterback issues make them vulnerable.
The Republican senators, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, are a bit like the Washington Football Team. If everything is done right on their end (intelligent campaigning, getting out the vote and raising money), nothing will stop them from winning. The Democrats, however, can do everything right but would still lose if their opponents are hitting on all cylinders.
… But Republicans are mighty vulnerable due to Trump’s immaturity in contesting the election results and indifference towards the pandemic. Also, the GOP’s failure to pass legislation for the $2,000 stimulus checks and inner-party controversy and frustration over the “alleged” election fraud could cost them Georgia’s Senate seats.
Georgia Senate polls today – Bookmark this page
Georgia Senate Polls: Expect the polls to be friendly to Democrats. As of December 8, the top tier polling site FiveThirtyEight.com had Ossoff ahead of Perdue by 0.4%, just under half of a percentage point. That’s not a good sign for Democrats as a host of their senatorial candidates finished well behind poll projections on November 3. For whatever reason, polling lately has leaned left.
If a poll says one or both Democrats is ahead by a point, they are probably (more accurately) behind by a point in that poll.
Bottom-line: In order to win, Democrats must be more flawless, in campaigning, energizing voters, messaging, and raising and spending money, than their Republican counterparts.
Democrats can – and will – win if left-leaning voter turnout is high and conservative voters are uninspired.
See the latest Georgia polls above…Tags: Georgia Senate Runoffs