Donald Trump in 2024? Poll confirms what we already know

By Lee Cleveland, Polls and Trends - December 12, 2020

Should Donald Trump run for president again in 2024?

Given he hasn’t left office yet, the answer is preliminary and may change with time.

At this moment, however, 60 percent of voters don’t want President Trump to run for president again in 2024, according to an NPR/PBS NewsHouse/Marist poll released Wednesday.

(Marist pollsters surveyed 1,065 adults, including 916 registered voters, from Dec. 1-6. The survey has a 3.7-point margin of error and a four-point margin of error for registered voters)

The same survey found just 32 percent of respondents hope the president runs again.

Those numbers shouldn’t be surprising. After all, 53 percent of those who cast ballots on November 3rd voted against him.

However, the poll also found 67 percent of Republicans would support a Trump candidacy in 2024…

And if there’s any takeaway that should raise eyebrows it’s that one. That number is significantly lower than his 90 percent approval rating among GOP supporters during the election.

An earlier survey found 53 percent of Republicans would definitely support the president in 2024 if he ran. That’s enough to win the nomination but it’s not the commanding advocation most of us would expect from Republicans, who have been so supportive of Trump since the start of his presidency.

In the end, if Trump seeks the GOP nomination in Summer 2024 what’ll matter most is what Republicans think. And everything depends on what happens between now and then.

Rumors suggest Trump, despite his attempt to overturn the results of the presidential election and refusal to acknowledge Biden as president-elect, will announce a 2024 bid on Inauguration Day.

And while it’s possible Trump will make that announcement in an attempt to steal some of the president-elect’s buzz, it doesn’t mean he’ll follow through.

If Joe Biden’s approval rating is above 50 percent in 2024 and he decides to run for re-election, don’t expect Trump to budge. However, if Biden is looking vulnerable in the polls or if he decides to step aside to allow the more liberal Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to run for the Oval Office, Trump will certainly throw his hat in the ring.

Optics is of supreme importance to Trump. He will be a 78 year old former president in 2024 and won’t allow himself to be in a position where’s he’s an “opponent,” a la Walter Mondale or Bob Dole, running against a popular incumbent.

Don’t expect him to assume the underdog role anymore.

At a White House Christmas party last week, Trump hinted his intentions, saying “It’s been an amazing four years. We are trying to do another four years. Otherwise, I’ll see you in four years.”

Tags: Donald Trump, U.S. Presidential Race 2020, U.S. Presidential Race 2024

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