Every anti-Trumper should sit down and realize how close America came to re-electing Donald Trump.
As of December 1 and with over 98 percent of the votes tabulated nationwide, Joe Biden, who has unofficially defeated Trump in the electoral college 306-232, leads Trump in the popular vote by roughly 6,273,000.
The 2020 Presidential Election was competitive but not close.
… Or was it?
Bush vs Gore (2000) and Bush vs Kerry (2004) were far closer than Trump vs Biden in the electoral and popular vote tallies. And when all the votes are in, the difference in the popular vote margin for Biden vs Trump will exceed the same for Obama vs Romney (2012).
Biden’s win looks comfortable on the surface until we do a bit more digging.
Check out the president-elect’s margins of victory in the states below and their number of electoral votes. Keep in mind, Biden appears to have secured 306 electoral votes, 36 more than the minimum required (270) to win electorally.
|State||Votes Cast||Margin of Victory||Electoral Votes||Percentage Difference|
Just 43,700 votes, from more than 154 million ballots cast, separated the winner from the loser.
Had Trump picked up just 21,000, 11,000 and 13,000 votes in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia, respectively, he would have won the election despite still losing to Biden by over 6.2 million in the nationwide popular vote.
In the above scenario, the electoral college would have been deadlocked at 269. Hence, advantage Trump.
So, what happens when no candidate reaches the magic number of 270?
Answer: U.S. House state delegations, each with one vote, pick the president. And, given Republicans outnumber Democrats 26-23-1 in that category, President Trump would have undoubtedly been re-elected.
Democrats have a majority in the House but state delegations favor Republicans.
So, how does that work?
- California has 45 Democrats and 7 Republicans in the U.S. House.
- Wyoming has just 2 House reps and both are Republicans.
Although Democrats outnumber Republicans 45 to 9 in a combined California-Wyoming House delegation tally, both states would get only one vote and the controlling party in both states would determine who received it. Hence, Biden would have received a vote from California and Trump would have received the same from Wyoming.
And yes, Mike Pence would have been re-elected as well because the U.S. Senate, which is controlled by Republicans, chooses the vice president when 270 isn’t reached. Each senator gets one vote so 51, a majority, is needed to win.
Perhaps all of this explains why Trump is trying so hard to overturn a small percentage of votes in a few states?
No wonder he paid for 3 recounts in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. Trump won those states in 2016.
Moreover, with the high profile looting and shootings in Wisconsin and talk about divesting funds from police departments, the Trump Campaign liked the president’s chances in those places.
And, given Arizona and Georgia had been Republican strongholds for years, Team Trump surely believed (pre election) they’d fend off threatening Biden surges in those states.
In the end, not a lot kept Trump from winning.
“So Close, Yet So Far,” a song written by Joy Byers and performed by Elvis Presley on his 1965 album Harum Scarum, might be a fitting phrase for the Trump Campaign.
Trump was so close to victory because 43,700 votes is such a small number in comparison to the 154,000,000 plus ballots accepted. But, he’s so far from winning because statewide margins of victory of 5,000 or more are nearly impossible to overturn. Our election system is about as accurate and fraud proof as it gets, so recounts seldom change the original result by more than a few hundred votes.
It would have taken a colossal blunder and/or unprecedented fraud in order for Trump to have won just one of those three states (WI, GA, or AZ) after a recount.
The fact a winner wasn’t declared until four days after the election is very misleading as the optics may suggest an intensely close race. It was competitive but not close.
Nevertheless, the post-election, worst-realistic-case-scenario margin between victory and defeat (roughly 44,700 votes) is mind-numbing and exactly why every vote counts.
Data shows Trump was very well-positioned to win in the event a few Biden supporters were overtaken by voter apathy,Tags: U.S. Presidential Race 2020